Notes on the town: Does Michael Jackson still have a chance?

Stuff heard around town this week……

At BAFTA LA’s lively annual Christmas party on the UCLA campus the talk turned to award season, of course, and surprisingly, Michael Jackson. A couple of Oscar voters there told me they intend to include the Jackson rehearsal documentary, “This Is It” on their list of 10 when they get their ballots next week. As one person said, it may not be so unusual a best picture choice as you might think.

“For me it’s about the creative process. You really get to see the passion and the work that goes into creating something like this. It was quite inspiring to watch,” he said.

Certainly right from its overwhelmingly positive response at a rare capacity official academy screening on the afternoon of Nov. 1 where long-time members have reported they never heard such a spontaneous cheering response at the final credits ran, the film has maintained buzz within the academy even as pundits have dismissed its nomination chances for best picture as a pipe dream.

Variety’s Peter Bart, also a long-time Oscar voter who was at that Nov. 1 screening, announced last week on his new Encore TV series, “In the House” that he definitely “had a place for ‘This Is It’ “on his best picture ballot.

Sony consultants told me their subsequent awards screenings for the film have also been well-received and that’s encouraged the studio to ramp up its campaign including last Monday’s pricey Variety cover touting the film for Best Picture, Director (Kenny Ortega), Film Editing, Sound Editing and Sound Mixing.

One naysaying person (an academy voter) told me flat out it won’t happen. He couldn’t imagine a movie , not even in existence as an idea last June (before Jackson’s death) could possibly have a shot.

But…..

When I first wrote about the movie here in October I too dismissed the prospect entirely by saying “Best Picture? C’mon beat it.” Now, call me crazy, but after seeing the genuine continuing enthusiasm within the academy I’m beginning to feel it’s legitimate.

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Sony Pictures Classics Co-President Michael Barker, a shrewd observer of the Oscar process, is having a very good year as he is promoting about 13 different films with various awards prospects including “An Education.” It has picked up lots of awards heat for its young star Carey Mulligan. He told me yesterday that in trying to look at the landscape objectively he is still pretty convinced it’s definitely in for Oscar’s 10 best list, and in fact thinks it is one of six locks so far based on his own internal discussions and vibes within the academy. The others he says are ”The Hurt Locker,” “Up in the Air,” “Avatar,” “Inglourious Basterds” and “Invictus.” Leading the charge for the other four slots he thinks are “Up,” “Precious,” “District 9,” “A Serious Man” and his own “The Last Station” based on SPC’s screening responses. I think that one could be more likely for acting recognition for Helen Mirren and Christopher Plummer. He likes the musical “Nine” personally but thinks its best picture chances may be declining a bit.

I asked him as an Academy voter what his own favorites are this year — leaving Sony Classics films out of the mix – and he said “Star Trek” and “Invictus.”

Barker declined to make bold predictions on the outcome of the Foreign Film competition since it is notoriously unpredictable but clearly SPC can probably count on nominations for its two top Cannes award winners, “The White Ribbon” which screened for the foreign language committee last Saturday and “”Un Prophete” which doesn’t show until Jan. 14. Even if the committee rejects them as one of their six choices, they are likely to be saved (by virtue of their worldwide acclaim) by the three additional picks the Foreign Language Executive Committee gets to make opening the way for their eventual nomination.

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One other film that sparked Barker’s curiosity was Warner Bros and Alcon Entertainment’s mega hit, “The Blind Side.” DVD screeners finally got delivered this week to Oscar voters. Was it a strategy waiting to strike just before the holidays so the film would be fresh in mind and top of the DVD stack? A few weeks ago Warners sent screeners to the Broadcast Critics, the Hollywood Foreign Press and the SAG nominating committee and landed Best Actress nominations from all three for its star, Sandra Bullock.

Sure to help is the just announced ABC network special hour long 20/20, “The Blind Side: The Real Story Behind the Movie” which will focus on the real life subjects of the film and book including the first interview with football All-American Michael Oher as well as the Tuohy family that “adopted” him. Bullock and co-star Tim McGraw will also participate.This will air on Dec. 29 at 10 p.m., the very day that many academy members will be receiving their ballots in the mail.

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Finally as the year comes to a close and Hollywood sets out for the holidays I want to remind everyone of a sobering statistic that a chart in Weekly Variety points out. In 2009 there were a total of 385 events in which 6,596 awards were handed out, an increase of 1,556 over 2008 and 3,414 over 10 years ago. Yikes. The economy and show business jobs may have taken a downward spiral, but it’s nice to know the industry’s desire to celebrate itself is skyrocketing.

Happy Holidays. You all deserve to be winners.

—- Pete Hammond

Photo: Sony Pictures

More from Notes on a Season:

Is ‘Avatar’ the new best picture front-runner?

Early nominations set Oscar’s table

Picking 10 best picture nominees is easy, right?